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WINTER WEEKEND READ: Model-Based Enrollment Forecasting


The ability to conduct data-driven and quantitatively rigorous feasibility studies, is often key to successful trial completion. In 2018, the Clinical Trials Database reported that low accrual rates were the highest determining factor on whether or not a trial would terminate [1]. Thankfully, new quantitative methods ensure that patient recruitment forecasting now reflects data-driven insights resulting from high-quality simulations.

For our second winter read, here is a beginner’s guide to Model-Based Enrollment Forecasting, offering a non-technical introduction to Monte Carlo simulations, and the benefits of their application to clinical trial sponsors.

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[1] Pharmaceutical Technology Enrolment Issues are the Top Factor in Clinical Trial Terminations. 2018. Dec 05, [Last accessed on 2019 Dec 05]. Available from: https://www.pharmaceutical-technology.com/comment/reasons-for-clincial-trial-termination.


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