There are currently 665 trials registered at Cytel’s COVID-19 Trial Tracker, a jump of over 100 trials in the past two weeks. Over 20% of these trials are for chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine, while only 10 of 17 vaccine trials are currently recruiting. Are we collectively prioritizing the correct investigational studies?
Cytel's Weekly Insights takes a closer look into what the data is now telling us. We also examine projected recruitment and completion dates for vaccine trials using two new functionalities: the Cumulative Registration function shows the total number of trials that are ongoing, when they began and when they are projected to end. The Cumulative Recruitment function shows expected enrollment by treatment.
Taken together we get a clearer picture of the journey so far and insight into the complexity of a path toward a vaccine and a cure.
First and foremost we take a look at the road to a vaccine.
There are currently 17 vaccine trials 10 of which are recruiting. An estimated 7,791 patients will have to be recruited to complete these trials. The largest of these are Australian and Dutch trials for a BCG vaccine recruiting, recruiting 4170 and 1500 patients respectively. The BCG vaccine is normally used for tuberculosis, and there has been speculation that incidence of COVID-19 is lower amongst those who have received BCG. Other important trials include the well-known Oxford Study aiming to recruit approximately 1112 patients and a trial in Jiangsu China recruiting approximately 744.
Below we see the long development path towards a vaccine. Although seventeen trials have already begun, we will not begin to trial completion until August 2020 at earliest. The completion of all of the current vaccine trials is projected to be in September 2021.
There are currently over 600 COVID-19 therapies that have been registered. Over 50 trials have begun in the past month alone, as viewed in the figure below.
Cytel’s COVID-19 Trial Tracker now has a Cumulative Registration function through which you can see the number of trials registered over time. Below you can find the 103 trials that have been registered in the United States. The red line demonstrates trials that have begun and the blue line displays estimated completion dates.
There are currently 147 trials for chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine (32 in the US) which cumulatively is about 50 more than there were two weeks ago. About 84 of these are recruiting, with 24 of those recruiting based in the United States.
Closer inspection reveals that 7 of these 24 trials are combining hydroxychloroquine with the anti-bacterial azithromycin, making azithromycin the second most widely investigated COVID-therapy in the United States.
There are now 53 registered trials for lopinavir (compared to 48 two weeks ago), with 2 new trials beginning recruitment this week.
There are also 26 trials for tocilizumab compared to 23 from two weeks ago.
Cytel’s COVID-19 Trial Tracker now has a Cumulative Recruitment tab enabling you to see total recruitment and projected recruitment for various therapies.