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Monte Carlo Simulations for Patient Enrollment: A Presentation by the Director of Pfizer's Feasibility Center for Excellence
Recently, we published an interview with Chris Conklin, the Director of the Center for Feasibility Excellence at Pfizer. During the interview, Chris spoke about how his team navigates the complex terrain of trial planning and patient recruitment, and achieves those high flying enrollment milestones for each and every trial. His key message was to utilize modern methods in data-driven feasibility studies, augmenting historic and site-level data with new techniques in forecasting.
Since our interview, Chris gave a talk at the annual SCOPE conference, in which he divulged a few more tips on obtaining consistent patient enrollment figures. An important feature was the use of Monte Carlo simulations, a popular tool from industrial and business operations, which is now gaining popularity amongst clinical operations specialists.
Monte Carlo simulations are easy to implement with the right tools, and yet can achieve target enrollment with 99% confidence. You can find below, a simple explanation of how this method works. Chris's slides (attached) contain a case study.