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Strategic Insights from Novel Bayesian Methods – Complimentary Paper

Did you know that Bayesian methods can strengthen Frequentist trials through the use of Bayesian decision criteria or post-hoc Bayesian analysis? Do you know how to apply in-trial posterior adjustments in multiarm studies, to calculate the probability of success of each arm? How many methods for incorporating historical data into new studies can you name?

Cytel scientists Dr. Ofir Harari, Dr. Pantelis Vlachos and Dr. Yannis Jemiai offer an indepth look at how Bayesian methods are set to transform the clinical research industry in years to come.

Innovations in Bayesian methods are occurring at every phase of clinical research from early phase dose-escalation trials to the creation of sound market access strategy. The article reviews about a dozen Bayesian techniques, and their strategic uses in every stage of the clinical development journey.

The article groups Bayesian methods into four distinct classes:

  • Trial Selection: Considerations for choosing Bayesian, Frequentist or Combined Method designs;
  • Boosting Safety and Efficacy: Understanding the range of dose-finding techniques, including those meant for cohort expansion and basket trials;
  • Accelerating Drug Development: Methods for constructing priors from historical data, and engaging in post-hoc Bayesian analyses for Frequentist clinical trials;
  • De-Risking Clinical Trials: Using computational power and new software technology to apply Bayesian techniques towards various elements of clinical trial strategy.

Under each of these headings, the authors explain the uses of a number of Bayesian techniques, how they can strengthen trial findings, or even provide strategic alternatives to various challenges that might arise across the span of clinical development.

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About the Author of Blog: 

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Dr. Esha Senchaudhuri is a research and communications specialist, committed to helping scholars and scientists translate their research findings to public and private sector executives. At Cytel Esha leads content strategy and content production across the company's five business units. She received a doctorate from the London School of Economics in philosophy, and is a former early-career policy fellow of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences. She has taught medical ethics at the Harvard School of Public Health (TH Chan School), and sits on the Steering Committee of the Society for Women in Philosophy's Eastern Division, which is responsible for awarding the Distinguished Woman in Philosophy Award.