The method for dose-response modeling that is widely called MCPMod allows a sponsor to measure the likelihood that particular dose-response curves are the right mathematical model for a given set of data. Since several different dose-response curves might be able to fit the data, how can you determine which is the best curve for your purposes?
Oct 13, 2015 4:39:00 PM
In honor of World Obesity Day (celebrated on Oct. 11 2015) here is an American Heart Association Statistical Primer on Cardiovascular Research. Cardiovascular outcome trials (sometimes called CVOTs) are clinical trials that are critical for determining the safety of new anti-obesity and diabetes drugs. Early CVOTs like TECOS and SAVOR-TIMI enrolled over 14,000 and 16,000 patients respectively.
Oct 8, 2015 4:25:00 PM
A recent American Statistical Association conference featured a town hall meeting to discuss the role of the statistician within the pharmaceutical industry, and in particular within the subfield of precision medicine. The panel of distinguished academics, regulators and members of industry confronted the concern that the era of precision medicine heralds an emerging need for statisticians to...
Oct 5, 2015 4:14:58 PM
One consideration every sponsor of a biomarker-stratified confirmatory trial must take into account, is whether to evaluate the biomarker subpopulation (S) against the rest of the population (S') or against the full population (F).
Mathematically, one would think this makes very little difference as F is partitioned into S and S'. If the null hypothesis is rejected for both S and S' then...
Oct 1, 2015 5:22:00 PM
This week marks the sixth annual American Conference on Pharmacometrics, held this year in Crystal City, VA. Situated at the intersection of mathematical modeling, simulation and big data, the field of pharmacometrics is delivering on its promise to revolutionize clinical research and by extension clinical development.
No wonder then that biostatisticians are now fully engaged with the...
Sep 29, 2015 5:02:00 PM
The Head of the DIA’s Adaptive Design Working Group Asks Us to Consider 5 ‘Soft-Skills’ All Effective Statisticians Should Cultivate
The advent of adaptive designs has meant that statisticians have a new role to play in the drug development process. Not only are they responsible for tackling the precise statistical issues that can arise during the course of a study, but their knowledge and...
Sep 24, 2015 3:35:00 PM
Earlier this week, Patti Arsenault, Cytel’s Global Head of Clinical Data Management, sat on an SCDM panel with members of Gilead and Westat. The panel partook in an interactive discussion on both the opportunities and challenges which arise from managing virtual teams.
As teams become more global in nature – optimizing delivery by around the clock work hours –many have weighed in on the best way...
Inference on Confidence Intervals for Adaptive Designs: The Latest Breed of Adaptive Clinical Trials
Sep 17, 2015 3:51:00 PM
Most people familiar with adaptive clinical trial designs are familiar with those statistical designs that reject the null hypothesis. These include now familiar designs like the promising zone design and the adaptive switch design.
A newer breed of adaptive designs, however, aims to apply adaptation techniques to confidence intervals.
Sep 15, 2015 3:56:42 PM
Sep 4, 2015 10:30:00 AM
Our Client's Challenge:
Can knowledge of the relationship between biomarkers and clinical endpoints help us to optimize an early development program and improve the probability of selecting the right dose in Phase 3?
Our client approached us hoping to expedite dose-finding with biomarkers in Phase 1b, and to design an optimal Phase 2b clinical endpoint trial to maximize probability of correct...
Sep 1, 2015 4:01:39 PM
If you’re in the practice of conducting early phase clinical trials, you’ve probably heard that modern trial designs include a number of new methodologies. There’s CRM and BLRM, model-based methods versus rule-based methods, and a number of other developments that might affect your clinical strategy. Each of these methods affects operational, financial and regulatory objectives in unique ways.
Aug 13, 2015 9:00:00 AM
Full service or specialized? Full service or specialized?
For many looking to hire a CRO, the answer is obvious.
Aug 10, 2015 2:32:34 PM
When approaching a Phase 3 clinical trial, the need to ‘de-risk’ the massive investment often leads sponsors on a quest for the perfect risk mitigating adaptation. While a strategically planned clinical trial design can be an important step in giving a new medicine its best possible chance of success, there are a number of other ways that a trial sponsor can minimize study risk.
Jul 27, 2015 5:47:00 PM
We were saddened to learn earlier this year, of the passing of Professor David Sackett. Widely recognized as the father of evidence based medicine, Professor Sackett confronted tough criticism in advancing the cause of evidence based medicine during the early nineties. During his four years at the Centre for Evidence Based Medicine at Oxford, Sackett’s team produced an array of books, articles,...
Jul 21, 2015 3:41:00 PM
MCP-Mod methodology for dose-ranging clinical trials has been gaining popularity since the 2013 publication of the qualification opinion by the European Medicines Agency Committee for Medical Products for Human Use. Since its development at Novartis, MCP-Mod promises to devise proof-of-concept and dose-ranging trials which generate superior statistical evidence for dose-selection, while...
Jul 14, 2015 11:00:00 AM
When conducting Maximum Likelihood Estimation, it is assumed that the maximum likelihood estimate follows a normal distribution. However, this may not be true in the case of small sample or sparse data.
Since the standard errors of the general linear model are based on asymptotic variance, they may not be a good estimator of standard error for small samples. In particular, Wald Confidence...
Jul 10, 2015 12:54:00 PM
Here at Cytel, we are engaging in a small celebration this afternoon, as the US House of Representatives has just passed the FDA Reform Bill more generally known as the 21st Century Cures Act.
Although this bill is widely viewed as a reform bill, it will provide extensive funding to both the FDA and NIH to ensure that clinical and pharmaceutical research lives up to its potential to deliver...
Jul 2, 2015 1:33:01 PM
Clyde Haberman, a columnist for the New York Times, once commented on the remarkable consistency of train arrival times on the Tokyo subway: "Every station lists the scheduled arrival times: 9:01, 9:04, 9:08 and so on. I lived in that city for five years...I never saw a train arrive so much as a minute late, not once. A posting of 9:01 meant 9:01." . Such predictability is rarely observed in...
Why You Should Not Power for Superiority Upfront: Promising Zone Clinical Trials with "Adaptive Switch"
Jun 26, 2015 12:00:06 PM
Powering a trial for superiority can be financially risky. In some instances it may also prove unnecessary.
Jun 25, 2015 4:28:00 PM
When conducting a clinical trial with small or sparse data sets, statistical methods meant for large sample sizes may fail to obtain an accurate interpretation of data. This is where computationally challenging exact methods often come into play.
Exact methods, however, are inferentially conservative in the sense that due to small sample sizes, the actual Type 1 error rate is often smaller...